Last week, we looked at the Madoff scandal and how following a fiduciary process would help you avoid getting caught in it or a similar scheme. Also during last week, the Satyam scandal broke in India, where the chairman of the outsourcing company admitted he had been cooking the books to overstate their performance. Much of the attention stemming from the scandal here has been focused, obviously, on confidence in India's corporate governance culture, or lack thereof, and lack of confidence in emerging markets in general.
Now the question for you, as a fiduciary, is what to do regarding emerging markets? Well, I think that what this latest scandal highlights is just why emerging markets are considered the higher risk proposition to begin with.
Practices 2.1-2.3 of our Prudent Practices for Investment Advisors handbook outline how to identify risk, return and time horizon in establishing proper portfolio diversification. Practice 2.4 then states, "Selected asset classes are consistent with the risk, return and time horizon." The basic premise is that asset classes should be selected in the context of how they advance a client's investment goals. If emerging markets are to be used, it should be understood just how risky they are and the potential for the "worst-case" scenario to unfold is weighted appropriately.
In terms of practically applying those Practices, the two questions as it relates to emerging markets are how good are your capital market inputs and when does it make sense to add them as an asset class. As references from fi360, our Asset Allocation Optimizer uses New Frontier Advisors' capital market inputs (which are due to be updated by the end of January, so you may want to check back to this link at that time) and our AIF Training program includes a slide on suggested sequence for adding asset classes, both of which demonstrate the high level of risk we associate with implementing emerging markets into a portfolio. When markets are particularly volatile or industry-affecting events occur, your may want to reevaluate your inputs and asset classes selected.
What all this means is that while the Satyam scandal has given investors a lot to think about in regards to India and emerging markets in general, a well-diversified portfolio built using sound fiduciary processes is not going to overly depend on the use of emerging markets, if they are even used at all. Emerging markets are, by definition, coming from areas with high levels of volatility and political, governance, and other risks, risks that can come to fruitiion in regards to investment return in scenarios such as this one. So, before attempting to implement emerging markets into a fiduciary portfolio, you should have an understanding of their context within the Formalize Step of the Fiduciary Quality Management System.
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