Will she or won’t she? That is now the question many SEC watchers are beginning to ask -- whether SEC Chairman Mary Schapiro will be able to withstand the political heat of an election year in moving to adopt a fiduciary rule for brokers and advisers.
These doubts began to fester last summer in the wake of the SEC’s court loss over the proxy access rule. In July, the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals held that the Commission acted “arbitrarily and capriciously” in failing to adequately assess the rule’s economic impact. However, given other recent legal defeats by the SEC on the same issue, it is clear that Schapiro must move cautiously on the fiduciary rule in particular.
Compounding her dilemma is the backdrop of the November presidential election. If it results in a Republican win, Schapiro will most likely be out of a job. The next SEC chairman would not likely share the same enthusiasm for raising broker standards. Given this possibility, look for Schapiro to do just the opposite – and that is work aggressively to protect her 20-year legacy as one of the top securities regulators in the country. Thus, contrary to current expectations, she will move forward and adopt a fiduciary rule in 2012.
Last summer, as the first anniversary of the adoption of Dodd-Frank approached, the question was not so much if, but when, Schapiro would push for adoption of a uniform fiduciary standard for federally registered broker-dealers and investment advisers.
But the seemingly unrelated lawsuit filed by the Business Roundtable and U.S. Chamber of Commerce in July challenging the SEC’s proxy access rule set back those efforts across a broad front of pending rules under Dodd-Frank. For the third time in recent years, the Circuit Court vacated an SEC rule based on an alleged failure to adequately assess the economic impact of a proposed rule. Not only did the court reject the SEC’s economic analysis for this latest rule, but in a withering critique, said
“…the Commission inconsistently and opportunistically framed the costs and benefits of the rule; failed adequately to quantify the certain costs or to explain why those costs could not be quantified; neglected to support its predictive judgments; contradicted itself; and failed to respond to substantial problems raised by commenters.”
And that was even before the judges got warmed up in their 21- page decision.
By late August, The New York Times published an incisive analysis of the problems facing the SEC after the Chamber’s latest win in court. Not only would the Commission have to tread carefully in crafting other rules under Dodd-Frank, but as the Times noted, while Wall Street’s powerful lobbying arm might force the agency to yield an occasional loophole, “judicial rulings can halt new rules altogether.” And, it added, industry lawyers were now huddling to pinpoint the next big legal fight.
In view of this new aggressive front opened by the industry in the courts, and the verbal flogging the SEC chairman receives every time she’s called to testify before the Republican-controlled House, conventional wisdom might suggest that the fiduciary rule for brokers and advisors is dead in the water. After all, Dodd-Frank only required a fiduciary study under Section 913 of the law, not a rule.
However, Schapiro’s political skills have been honed and sharpened over the years as a seasoned Washington insider. She will not back down without a fight. Much of her political skills have been learned over the past quarter of a century previously as an SEC commissioner, then chairman of the CFTC, and then president of NASD Regulation and Chairman and CEO of FINRA. A thin-skinned regulator would not have survived this long.
While the SEC economists are crunching numbers on the economic impact of a fiduciary rule, she and select advisors on staff, some of them with pedigrees as former Hill staffers on the committees overseeing Wall Street, will have made some careful political calculations of their own.
One of the most important is the political time frame for proposing and adopting a rule. Time is quickly running out with the presidential election just 11 months away. She is probably also acutely aware, as noted in a recent Chamber report on structural reform at the SEC, that few chairmen serve for the full, five-year term. In fact, only two out of 13 have accomplished that modest feat since 1970.
Given that the presidential contest is a toss-up, it is easily possible that Schapiro will no longer be at the SEC helm next January 20th.
She is also well aware that any agency rule must conform to the federal Administrative Procedure Act. Prior to the mid-90s, this was not a problem. While the APA then offered a significant barrier to industry in challenging federal agency rules (the standard being that the agency must have acted in an ‘arbitrary and capricious’ manner), that bar has been lowered thanks to an accommodating federal bench and, more importantly, a gift from a former Republican Congress. In 1996, Newt Gingrich’s ‘Contract with America’ Congress set the stage by passing a securities reform package that included mandatory cost-benefit analyses for new SEC rules.
However, the securities industry didn’t notice the potency of this provision as a legal weapon until the mid-2000s. Or maybe it didn’t need to, since it was able to exert a significant amount of influence until recent scandals caused the SEC to crack down. Since 2004, though, SEC rules have taken a beating in court at least five times, with business groups racking up a perfect batting average against the SEC, including three wins based on cost-benefit issues.
What the APA does provide is considerable flexibility in allowing an agency to set comment deadlines, to open a new comment period if needed to demonstrate to a court that it diligently reviewed points that were overlooked the first time, and in adopting final rules. However, Schapiro will be constrained by presidential politics into compressing a fiduciary rule package into 12 months. But the APA should allow the SEC to easily move forward and adopt a rule within 12 months.
If the SEC were to proceed, then it would probably have to propose a fiduciary rule by May at the latest. This would provide 90 days for comment, and then sufficient time for the SEC to adopt a final rule in mid- to late autumn. The effective date of the new rule would probably be pushed out until the summer or fall of 2013. And it will likely be stayed if a lawsuit is filed.
Under the APA, a lawsuit must be filed within 60 days after final rule adoption. If recent cases against the SEC are any indication, it will happen within days of the SEC vote, not weeks or months later. The legal process before the DC Circuit Court of Appeals, even if expedited, will take at least several months for a decision. By that time, Schapiro may be long gone. However, her legacy will have been assured. Thus Mary Schapiro’s time to act is now.
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